Exciting new episode of Coolabah’s Complexity Premia Podcast out now!
Today I explain why most global high yield bonds are really just equity risk, with similar volatility and maximum 40% losses, while also lifting the lid on one of our most complex and bold predictions: the shock Standard & Poor’s upgrade yesterday of the major banks’ hybrids from their previous BB+ “high yield” rating to …
How we predicted S&P’s shock upgrade of major bank hybrids to investment-grade Read More »
Today I write that the ACCC inquiry into the big banks, and the front book/back book fracas that reportedly precipitated it, are completely bogus. Let’s get a few facts straight. First, all businesses, including banks, are free to discount new product sales. Trying to prevent banks from doing so would be akin to telling Coles they …
Today I write that it is amusing how we have shifted from nobody believing our early May forecast that Aussie quantitative easing (QE) was coming, to it suddenly becoming the consensus view as the Reserve Bank of Australia grapples with an effective lower bound on its target cash rate. In fact, there are interest rate …
Here are some basic thoughts from my team on CBA’s new hybrid issue, which is not investment advice and should not be relied on for any decision-making. Note that this is also very high-level… Analysis of new CBA Hybrid: CBAPI CBA has launched a new hybrid security offering: PERLS XII, expected to trade on the …
Keen vs Joye; Is Capitalism Dead; CBA’s New Hybrid Deal; Hybrids vs Foreign High Yield; the Coming of Aussie QE and Much More
On Thursday I debated and demolished my old foe Dr Steve Keen (of doomsday fame) on the contentious subject of Aussie housing. You might recall that Steve was the guy who garnered enormous media coverage for predicting a sensational 40 per cent drop in house prices during the 2008 global financial crisis. Aussie house prices are now 131 per …
In predictably cutting its cash rate to a new record low of 0.75 per cent in October, the RBA moved itself one meeting away from initiating quantitative easing (QE), or outright purchases of bonds—as we controversially forecast in early May—to satisfy its full-employment target. Click here to read the full column or AFR subs can click here. Excerpt …
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