Complexity Premia

Whether Crypto is the 21st century Tulip Bulb Bubble?

Looking ahead into 2022; Trajectory for inflation, rates and asset prices; NSW slashes debt issuance by $20bn; Machines entering bond market…

House prices falling 20% if rates rise; Forecasting global wars; RBA vs bond bandits; October performance…

Inflationary headwinds for duration/equities, ESG Activism, Evergrande, APRA closing $139bn CLF, RBA QE3…

Forecasting Australian Herd Immunity; Vaccines Hitting 91% Adult Coverage; Borders Re-Opening in 2022; And Why the Strong Jobs Data is Not What it Seems…

A special episode of the Complexity Premia podcast is an audible version of a new research paper from Kieran Davies…

Housing Affordability Non-Crisis; Bond Market Rebound; March Performance; Bank Liquidity Issues; RBA’s QE3 Program; Credit Markets; & Budget Deficits…

The Bond Market Bloodbath; February Returns; RBA QE 3.0 and 4.0; & How the RBA’s Governor Phil Lowe Brutally Blew-Up the Bond Bandits…

RBA QE 1.0, 2.0, 3,0 and 4.0; WWIII; House Bubble No…

Our portfolio performance in 2020; Our forecasts for 2021, including housing, unemployment, QE and macro markets generally; The burgeoning conflict between democracy and autocracy; and Our thoughts on the big left- and right-tail risks, including the prospect of major power conflict.