Coolabah Capital selected as one of Australia’s Top Alpha Managers
On the subject of the search for yield, one question I am regularly asked is whether retail investors should be switching from major bank hybrids
Hybrids vs High Yield
On the subject of the search for yield, one question I am regularly asked is whether retail investors should be switching from major bank hybrids
House Prices to Increase 30%
It is time to unveil a new expectation: if the RBA continues cutting through conventional and unconventional means, which is our central case, I expect that this economic cycle house prices will likely increase by about 30% with no immediate financial stability hazards. This follows on from our April 2019 projection that the 10% draw-down in Australian …
How we predicted S&P’s shock upgrade of major bank hybrids to investment-grade
Today I explain why most global high yield bonds are really just equity risk, with similar volatility and maximum 40% losses, while also lifting the lid on one of our most complex and bold predictions: the shock Standard & Poor’s upgrade yesterday of the major banks’ hybrids from their previous BB+ “high yield” rating to …
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Big banks have never faced more competition…
Today I write that the ACCC inquiry into the big banks, and the front book/back book fracas that reportedly precipitated it, are completely bogus. Let’s get a few facts straight. First, all businesses, including banks, are free to discount new product sales. Trying to prevent banks from doing so would be akin to telling Coles they …
How Aussie QE Will Work
Today I write that it is amusing how we have shifted from nobody believing our early May forecast that Aussie quantitative easing (QE) was coming, to it suddenly becoming the consensus view as the Reserve Bank of Australia grapples with an effective lower bound on its target cash rate. In fact, there are interest rate …
Thoughts on CBA Perls XII
Here are some basic thoughts from my team on CBA’s new hybrid issue, which is not investment advice and should not be relied on for any decision-making. Note that this is also very high-level… Analysis of new CBA Hybrid: CBAPI CBA has launched a new hybrid security offering: PERLS XII, expected to trade on the …
Demolishing a housing doomsayer
On Thursday I debated and demolished my old foe Dr Steve Keen (of doomsday fame) on the contentious subject of Aussie housing. You might recall that Steve was the guy who garnered enormous media coverage for predicting a sensational 40 per cent drop in house prices during the 2008 global financial crisis. Aussie house prices are now 131 per …
As predicted, RBA QE is coming soon…
In predictably cutting its cash rate to a new record low of 0.75 per cent in October, the RBA moved itself one meeting away from initiating quantitative easing (QE), or outright purchases of bonds—as we controversially forecast in early May—to satisfy its full-employment target. Click here to read the full column or AFR subs can click here. Excerpt …
Kissinger: Why Traders Are Smarter Than Investors
While studying at Cambridge University in 2003 I got a letter from former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger, inviting me to meet him in New York. I naturally embraced the opportunity. I recall walking into his stuffy office overlooking Park Avenue, adorned with literally hundreds of photos of Kissinger standing alongside heads of state and …
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