The global factor driving Aussie swap spreads
Our fundamental model of Australian swap spreads that we released in December 2021 started the new year well, predicting…
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War Lab Revealed by ASPI’s The Strategist
Writing for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s The Strategist today, Coolabah Capital Investments’ Chief Investment Officer Christopher Joye unveils Coolabah’s new War Lab…
Forecasting Australian herd immunity and opening up our borders: early to mid 2022
Coolabah has attempted to forecast both the advent of “herd immunity” in Australia and when governments will be comfortable opening-up our borders to both inflows and outflows of vaccinated human capital, subject to…
Should we worry about a spike in US inflation?
This is an article published by Kieran Davies, Chief Macro Strategist, on Livewire recently. Key former policy-makers and academics have raised concerns about US inflation risks stemming from an unprecedented peacetime stimulus delivered as the economy is recovering rapidly. However, overheating seems unlikely in the short term, with Fed forecasts suggesting it will take until …
RBA QE is being outpaced by rest of the world, putting upward pressure on A$ and implying more QE is needed…
This is an article published by Kieran Davies, Chief Macro Strategist, on Livewire recently. In a world of near-zero interest rates, the stance of monetary policy is now better measured by the size and composition of a central bank’s balance sheet. In Australia’s case, the RBA’s adoption of unconventional monetary policy has seen its balance …
Forecasting QE3 Program
In this new paper, Coolabah’s Chief Macro Strategist, Kieran Davies, and its Chief Investment Officer, Christopher Joye, examine the case for the RBA launching QE 2.0 after the current $100 billion QE program, which has helped slow the ascent of both long-term interest rates and Australia’s trade-weighted exchange rate, expires. They focus, in particular, on …
Active management is key to fixed income alpha
This is an article published on Livewire recently. Smart active managers in high-grade credit can find and exploit bond mispricings to generate alpha (or capital gains) that is as big, if not bigger, than the yield earned on these securities. This is Coolabah Capital Investment’s investment philosophy, which Portfolio Management Director Ying Yi Ann Cheng …
Why Coolabah is painting a rosy picture for 2021
This is an article published on Livewire recently. Ying Yi Ann Cheng, Portfolio Management Director at Coolabah Capital Investments, says the manager spent almost one billion dollars buying assets in March 2020 in anticipation of the fiscal and monetary policy stimulus packages that ultimately lead to a strong market recovery. At the time, many investors …
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Aussie house prices increase in October (in line with our March 2020 forecast)
This is an article portfolio manager Christopher Joye published on Livewire recently. Consistent with our March 2020 forecast for a very mild 0% to 5% correction in national house prices followed by a recovery around six months later, CoreLogic has reported today that national dwelling values increased by 0.4% in October for the first time …
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House prices to rise at 20 per cent this cycle
This is an article portfolio manager Christopher Joye published on Livewire recently. Today I write that housing boom is tracking more or less exactly as we expected, and based on the RBA’s model of housing dynamics one should pencil in total capital gains of circa 20 per cent this cycle assuming no further reductions in …
